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DAILY FIVE · RESEARCH

Testing a stronger forecasting model

Context challenger v1 · shadow only

The upgraded pipeline uses NBA pace and efficiency, NFL play efficiency and starting quarterbacks, opponent strength, preseason shrinkage, availability, rest, travel and football weather. It runs alongside the original scoring-average benchmark. Original picks and official results remain unchanged.

No challenger has been approved for calibrated probability or value claims. Installing the pipeline does not establish predictive performance. Missing historical snapshots, trained weights or verified current inputs produce a dated research hold. Eleven settled segment picks are insufficient to establish an edge.

Methods, testing and promotion requirements →

Research audit

hold · 2026-11-06T13:06:49.658Z

No frozen trained challenger artifact, genuine archived as-of historical feature/odds dataset or independent chronological calibration/uncertainty evidence is present in the saved research audit. Current NBA season PF/PA and schedules are available for the separately labeled baseline, but do not establish validated pace/efficiency, learned player/lineup impacts, opponent ratings, preseason priors, or fitted shrinkage/context weights for the challenger. No numerical injury, quarterback, weather or availability effects are invented and missing features are not imputed as zero. All challenger probabilities remain null; no shadow forecast or dk-value-v1 promotion. Yesterday's near-close quotes were not captured prospectively and remain missing; no retrospective closing-line claims. This hold is excluded from official W/L, units and ROI.

Research only; excluded from the official record.

Daily reports and original results →

The State & NationOfficial sources. Original publications.

Independent aggregation with attribution to the issuing organization.

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