State & Nation Sports Desk · Model ppg-trial-v1 · Published
November 5, 2026 — three pregame paper singles, one unit risked each; two-pick shortfall. Entire NFL/NBA slate screened: Jacksonville at Baltimore, both spreads (JAX −10 −112/BAL +10 −108) and total 39.5 (−110 each); Orlando at Phoenix total 223.5 (O −106/U −114); Miami at Golden State total 235.5 (−110 each). NFL projection 45.803571 total gives Over a 6.303571-point gap versus BAL +10's 3.928571; NBA total gaps are 5.547619 and 1.000000. One market/event. Other NFL board dates excluded. NBA spreads/moneylines, NHL, college sports and other sports were not model-screened; no separately established trial method was applied to them. Only three events fit the documented methods and verified screen; no claim of best across every sport.
NFL: apply /sports/betting/methodology's PF/PA per-game formula with fixed ±0.75 home adjustment. NBA: continue the November 4 totals-only submethod, E=(season PF+PA)/games per team; total=(Eaway+Ehome)/2. No NFL side formula applied to basketball. Raw inputs, sources and calculations are recorded per pick. Rank positive raw point discrepancies; cross-sport point magnitudes are not comparable probabilities or EV. All trial probabilities null. Small samples and no opponent, injury, quarterback, lineup, pace, rest, travel or weather adjustments; no calibration or profitable-history claim.
Exact original DraftKings Network lines and both total-side prices checked 2026-11-05T13:02:18Z, within 30 minutes of publication. NBA board labels updated 7:47 a.m. ET. Public snapshots may differ from local executable prices by time, jurisdiction/account. Earlier scheduled starts recorded per pick govern pregame eligibility. Full-game totals include overtime unless stated otherwise; linked DraftKings rules archive is jurisdiction-specific, not a guarantee of current rules everywhere.
Yesterday, November 4, all five verified official NBA finals: ATL 120–WSH 105, Under 232.5 −107 WIN +0.934579u; CHI 105–NY 135, Under 234.5 −115 LOSS −1u; MIN 117–HOU 107, Over 220.5 −105 WIN +0.952381u; MIL 102–BOS 109, Over 224.5 −110 LOSS −1u; POR 132–PHX 119, Over 227.5 −112 WIN +0.892857u. Yesterday 3W/2L/0 push/0 void/0 pending, +0.779818 units, +15.5964% ROI on five settled units. Source links remain in each saved settlement; original selections and losses preserved.
Cumulative since November 1: 5W/6L/0 push/0 void/3 pending; -1.418234 units, -12.8930% ROI on eleven settled units. Original American prices determine profit; push/void net zero. Pending/void excluded from ROI stakes, pushes included. No older unresolved segment picks remain. October prelaunch notes excluded; November 3 coverage gap retained, no backfill. No actual wagers.
Odds are a snapshot from publication, not a live offer. These are archived selections.
#1 · NFL · total
Over 39.5 — Jaguars/Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens ·
DraftKings -110
Trial projection: 45.80 points combined · Difference from selected line: 6.30 points. This is a ranking measure, not an estimated betting profit.
NFL ppg-trial-v1 projects Jacksonville 25.937500, Baltimore 19.866071, total 45.803571. Over gap 6.303571 points exceeds Baltimore +10's 3.928571 spread gap, so only the total is selected. Season scoring averages do not adjust for current quarterbacks, injuries, opponent strength, weather, pace or rest; these can overwhelm the apparent discrepancy. One paper unit risked. No probability or EV estimate.
ppg-trial-v1 NFL as documented at /sports/betting/methodology. awayScore=(away PF/game+home PA/game)/2−0.75; homeScore=(home PF/game+away PA/game)/2+0.75. JAX 196 PF/111 PA over 7 games; BAL 179 PF/203 PA over 8. Select the larger positive discrepancy between spreads and total, one market per game. Uncalibrated prospective trial; all probabilities null.
Break-even win rate conditional on no push: 52.38%.
#2 · NBA · total
Over 223.5 — Orlando Magic/Phoenix Suns
Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns ·
DraftKings -106
Trial projection: 229.05 points combined · Difference from selected line: 5.55 points. This is a ranking measure, not an estimated betting profit.
NBA totals-only scoring-environment projection 229.047619, 5.547619 points above the line. Small early-season sample; no adjustment for pace, opponent strength, home/away splits, injuries, current lineups, shooting variance, rest or travel. Miami/Phoenix played last night; the baseline does not quantify fatigue. A positive point gap does not establish a profitable price. One paper unit risked; no win probability or EV claimed.
ppg-trial-v1 NBA totals-only scoring-environment submethod documented in November 4 report and repeated here prospectively. For each NBA team E=(season pointsFor+pointsAgainst)/gamesPlayed. Projected full-game total=(Eaway+Ehome)/2; choose the direction with positive discrepancy and rank absolute point gaps. No football home scoring adjustment or spread formula applied. No calibration or profitability claim; pWin/pPush/pWinLower null.
Break-even win rate conditional on no push: 51.46%.
#3 · NBA · total
Over 235.5 — Miami Heat/Golden State Warriors
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors ·
DraftKings -110
Trial projection: 236.50 points combined · Difference from selected line: 1.00 points. This is a ranking measure, not an estimated betting profit.
NBA totals-only scoring-environment projection 236.500000, 1.000000 points above the line. Small early-season sample; no adjustment for pace, opponent strength, home/away splits, injuries, current lineups, shooting variance, rest or travel. Miami/Phoenix played last night; the baseline does not quantify fatigue. A positive point gap does not establish a profitable price. One paper unit risked; no win probability or EV claimed.
ppg-trial-v1 NBA totals-only scoring-environment submethod documented in November 4 report and repeated here prospectively. For each NBA team E=(season pointsFor+pointsAgainst)/gamesPlayed. Projected full-game total=(Eaway+Ehome)/2; choose the direction with positive discrepancy and rank absolute point gaps. No football home scoring adjustment or spread formula applied. No calibration or profitability claim; pWin/pPush/pWinLower null.
Break-even win rate conditional on no push: 52.38%.
Results for this report
Original picks · 2026-11-05 · one unit risked per pick
Selection
Original odds
Final / source
Result
Net units
Over 39.5 — Jaguars/Ravens Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
-110
Jaguars 33, Ravens 10 Official Ravens game center confirms the completed final. 43 combined points: original Over 39.5 — Jaguars/Ravens at -110 is a win. One unit risked; net 0.909091 units. Original line, price and report preserved. DraftKings full-game totals/OT rules reviewed at https://massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.1.24.pdf (archival jurisdiction-specific reference). No overtime or exceptional interruption affected grading. Paper results only.
WIN
+0.91
Over 223.5 — Orlando Magic/Phoenix Suns Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns
-106
Magic 104, Suns 117 Official NBA game data confirms Final after four regulation periods. 221 combined points: original Over 223.5 — Orlando Magic/Phoenix Suns at -106 is a loss. One unit risked; net -1.000000 units. Original line, price and report preserved. DraftKings full-game totals/OT rules reviewed at https://massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.1.24.pdf (archival jurisdiction-specific reference). No overtime or exceptional interruption affected grading. Paper results only.
LOSS
-1.00
Over 235.5 — Miami Heat/Golden State Warriors Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
-110
Heat 100, Warriors 120 Official NBA game data confirms Final after four regulation periods. 220 combined points: original Over 235.5 — Miami Heat/Golden State Warriors at -110 is a loss. One unit risked; net -1.000000 units. Original line, price and report preserved. DraftKings full-game totals/OT rules reviewed at https://massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.1.24.pdf (archival jurisdiction-specific reference). No overtime or exceptional interruption affected grading. Paper results only.
LOSS
-1.00
1 wins · 2 losses · 0 pushes · 0 voids · 0 pending · -1.09 net units
Previous day’s results · 2026-11-04
Original picks · 2026-11-04 · one unit risked per pick
Selection
Original odds
Final / source
Result
Net units
Under 232.5 — Atlanta Hawks/Washington Wizards Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
-107
Hawks 120, Wizards 105 Official NBA game data confirms Final after four regulation periods. 225 combined points: original Under 232.5 — Atlanta Hawks/Washington Wizards at -107 is a win. One unit risked; net 0.934579 units. Original line and price preserved. DraftKings full-game basketball overtime/push provisions reviewed in https://massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.1.24.pdf (archival jurisdiction-specific rules); no overtime or exceptional interruption affected this completed game. Paper grading only.
WIN
+0.93
Under 234.5 — Chicago Bulls/New York Knicks Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
-115
Bulls 105, Knicks 135 Official NBA game data confirms Final after four regulation periods. 240 combined points: original Under 234.5 — Chicago Bulls/New York Knicks at -115 is a loss. One unit risked; net -1.000000 units. Original line and price preserved. DraftKings full-game basketball overtime/push provisions reviewed in https://massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.1.24.pdf (archival jurisdiction-specific rules); no overtime or exceptional interruption affected this completed game. Paper grading only.
LOSS
-1.00
Over 220.5 — Minnesota Timberwolves/Houston Rockets Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
-105
Timberwolves 117, Rockets 107 Official NBA game data confirms Final after four regulation periods. 224 combined points: original Over 220.5 — Minnesota Timberwolves/Houston Rockets at -105 is a win. One unit risked; net 0.952381 units. Original line and price preserved. DraftKings full-game basketball overtime/push provisions reviewed in https://massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.1.24.pdf (archival jurisdiction-specific rules); no overtime or exceptional interruption affected this completed game. Paper grading only.
WIN
+0.95
Over 224.5 — Milwaukee Bucks/Boston Celtics Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
-110
Bucks 102, Celtics 109 Official NBA game data confirms Final after four regulation periods. 211 combined points: original Over 224.5 — Milwaukee Bucks/Boston Celtics at -110 is a loss. One unit risked; net -1.000000 units. Original line and price preserved. DraftKings full-game basketball overtime/push provisions reviewed in https://massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.1.24.pdf (archival jurisdiction-specific rules); no overtime or exceptional interruption affected this completed game. Paper grading only.
LOSS
-1.00
Over 227.5 — Portland Trail Blazers/Phoenix Suns Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
-112
Trail Blazers 132, Suns 119 Official NBA game data confirms Final after four regulation periods. 251 combined points: original Over 227.5 — Portland Trail Blazers/Phoenix Suns at -112 is a win. One unit risked; net 0.892857 units. Original line and price preserved. DraftKings full-game basketball overtime/push provisions reviewed in https://massgaming.com/wp-content/uploads/DraftKings-House-Rules-8.1.24.pdf (archival jurisdiction-specific rules); no overtime or exceptional interruption affected this completed game. Paper grading only.
