INDEPENDENT STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

State and Nation Rankings

Rankings by State and Nation. Analytical articles by Bob LePage.

Weekly publication schedule

First football editions: October 20, 2026. Regular editions begin October 26 for college football and October 27 for the NFL. Each table uses completed games only and publishes its exact data cutoff. Postseason games are included; preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Offseason tables remain archived with their original dates.

Published editions

State and Nation Top 25: Miami sets the pace, but BYU brings the pressure

State and Nation Power Rankings: Minnesota leads, and the unbeaten teams have some explaining to do

A model readers can inspect

Version SN-1.1 combines a recency-weighted, opponent-adjusted scoring-margin model with a Colley win/loss rating. FBS football uses 50% strength and 50% résumé. Other college sports use 70% and 30%; professional sports use 90% and 10%. Both components are standardized across eligible teams, then combined around a starting value of 50 before the deductions and résumé adjustments below. The weights are initial editorial assumptions and have not been optimized or validated on held-out historical seasons.

Losses and weak schedules reduce the index

Loss deduction = 12 × (losses + half of ties) / completed games for college teams, or 8 × that rate for professional teams. Weak-schedule deduction = 4 × below-average schedule difficulty in standard-deviation units for college teams, or 3 × for professional teams, capped at eight index points. An average or stronger schedule receives no deduction. Opponent difficulty already enters the fitted ratings; this explicit extra discount deliberately emphasizes the publisher’s résumé preference and is not an independent predictive variable.

CFP-style comparisons for FBS football

The model adds two points per win against the top 25 in unadjusted FBS strength and one against Nos. 26–50, capped at six. Among teams within one point before comparison adjustments, direct meetings can contribute up to ±0.75; otherwise, outcomes against at least two shared opponents can contribute up to ±0.25. Applicable comparisons are averaged. Common-opponent scoring margins are ignored, and final numeric scores determine rank.

These are State and Nation’s numerical choices, informed by the CFP selection protocol. Our Top 25 remains an independent ranking. Personnel availability and conference-qualification rules require separate verified evidence; no speculative injury or conference-title points are added.

For each completed game, minimize the weighted squared error between capped margin minus venue advantage and the difference in team strengths, plus a ridge penalty on team ratings. Game weight is 2 raised to minus age in days divided by the sport’s half-life. Colley uses diagonal entries 2 + games played, off-diagonal entries minus head-to-head games, and right-hand side 1 + (wins − losses)/2. Ties count as half a win. No human poll, school reputation or preseason ranking enters the score.

Football caps: 28 points college and 21 NFL; home adjustments: 2.5 and 2; half-life: 42 days; ridge: 2 and 3. Basketball uses a 20-point cap, baseball/softball five runs, hockey and soccer three goals. Each edition discloses its actual constants. These score-based models do not claim possession-adjusted efficiency, EPA or player-level injury adjustments.

Small score gaps imply similar evidence. The index is not a win probability, official poll or playoff selection forecast. New models require backtesting before claims of predictive accuracy. NASCAR, IndyCar and PGA require event-based driver/player models and are outside this team-ranking model.

Property of State and Nation Media Group LLC.