Week 8 breaks open the AP Top 25 behind Miami’s control and five unranked upsets

By Bob LePage · Oct 25, 2026

Miami handled the burden of No. 1, Utah and UCLA stayed unbeaten, and losses by BYU, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Iowa and USC forced a broad reassessment. State & Nation’s outlook covers every team in the Oct. 18 AP Top 25 through 7 a.m. Eastern on Oct. 25.

Games covered: Oct 18, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Baseline: Associated Press Top 25 college football poll, Oct 18, 2026. Ranking-change assessments and projections are by State & Nation.

The top held, but the middle gave way

Miami answered its first week at No. 1 with a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh, while UCLA and Utah stayed unbeaten with very different victories. The Bruins controlled Michigan State; the Utes had to erase a 10-point second-half deficit against No. 14 Houston. Those results deserve more weight than reputation alone when the next ballot is built.

The sharper change comes below them. Unranked UCF, Cincinnati, South Carolina, Minnesota and Wisconsin beat ranked teams, and No. 19 Texas stopped a two-game slide by defeating No. 7 Mississippi. BYU’s double-overtime loss is the weekend’s largest shock, but Texas Tech, Tennessee, Iowa and USC also surrendered the kind of games that should produce meaningful movement.

State & Nation’s ranking view

The outlooks below are State & Nation opinion, not official AP results. They weigh opponent quality, game location, margin, full-season record and the results around each team. An idle team can move when teams above it lose, but a bye by itself is not evidence of improvement.

The Oct. 18 AP poll is the baseline. The coverage window runs from Sunday, Oct. 18 at 7 a.m. Eastern through Sunday, Oct. 25 at 7 a.m. Eastern. The next AP poll was scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 25 and had not been released at the cutoff.

What the ballot should reward

Miami should remain No. 1. Ohio State can rise while idle because BYU lost, but the strongest upward cases belong to unbeaten UCLA and Utah, Kentucky after another SEC win, and Indiana after surviving at Michigan. Texas, LSU, SMU, Northwestern, Boise State and Arizona also improved their positions with convincing or high-value wins.

The losses are not equal. Houston fell on the road to an unbeaten top-10 opponent and should remain ranked. Ole Miss lost at a ranked Texas team and still has a solid case. Iowa and USC lost to unranked opponents while producing little offense, and their margins for remaining in the poll are much thinner.

The Top 25, team by team

No. 1 · Miami (Fla.)

Oct. 24: defeated Pittsburgh 52-23 at home.

Miami scored on seven of its first eight possessions and never allowed the game to become competitive. The Hurricanes paired a 52-point output with a defense that limited Pittsburgh to 69 rushing yards.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Hold at No. 1. The performance met the standard expected from the top team and no challenger produced a clearly superior case.

No. 2 · BYU

Oct. 24: lost at UCF 39-31 in double overtime.

BYU took its first loss against an unranked opponent after rallying into overtime. The narrow road loss is less damaging than a decisive defeat, but the Cougars cannot stay second after losing to a .500 team.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Fall into the back half of the top 10, with the exact landing shaped by how voters compare the Notre Dame win with this loss.

No. 3 · Ohio State

Bye week; the official schedule shows no game in the coverage window.

The Buckeyes added no new evidence. Results above and below them changed the order, however, and BYU’s loss opens the No. 2 position.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise to No. 2 by attrition, while remaining behind Miami.

No. 4 · Notre Dame

Bye week after the Oct. 17 loss at BYU.

The Irish had no game to repair last week’s defeat. BYU’s loss also weakens, rather than strengthens, the result Notre Dame carried into the bye.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Hold near No. 4 or slip one place as an unbeaten team moves past.

No. 5 · Georgia

Open date; Georgia’s official schedule lists Oct. 24 as an open date.

Georgia rested after the Auburn loss. The Bulldogs’ full résumé still supports a high ranking, but unbeaten Indiana, UCLA or Utah now has a reasonable argument to pass them.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Hold in the top six, most likely No. 5 or No. 6.

No. 6 · Indiana

Oct. 24: defeated Michigan 13-6 in overtime on the road.

Indiana won at Michigan with defense, producing four sacks and 10 tackles for loss while holding the Wolverines to 224 yards. The offense struggled, but winning in Ann Arbor matters more than style points.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise one or two places, with the road win outweighing the low score.

No. 7 · Mississippi

Oct. 24: lost at No. 19 Texas 34-27.

Ole Miss fell behind 24-3, rallied, and still had a final possession before Texas intercepted a Hail Mary. A competitive road loss to a ranked team is survivable, but a second loss ends its top-10 claim for now.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Fall into the No. 12-16 range.

No. 8 · Texas Tech

Oct. 24: lost at Cincinnati 37-24.

Texas Tech’s unbeaten run ended against an unranked opponent that controlled the middle of the game. The 13-point margin and lack of a late answer make this more damaging than a one-possession road loss.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Fall into the mid-teens.

No. 9 · UCLA

Oct. 24: defeated Michigan State 28-10 at home.

UCLA reached 7-0 and 5-0 in Big Ten play while allowing only 156 total yards and forcing three turnovers. The Bruins produced the cleanest case among the teams immediately below the top six.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise into the top six.

No. 10 · Utah

Oct. 24: defeated No. 14 Houston 21-13 at home.

Utah trailed 13-3 in the second half, then closed with 18 unanswered points. The Utes are 7-0, own a ranked win and stand alone atop the Big 12.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise into the No. 6-8 range, with a stronger case than several teams that were idle or lost.

No. 11 · Tennessee

Oct. 24: lost at South Carolina 27-24 on a 48-yard field goal as time expired.

Tennessee reached a 24-24 tie late, then lost the ball on a strip-sack that set up the final kick. The narrow road margin limits the damage, but the unranked loss follows a week that had lifted the Volunteers.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Fall toward the bottom of the top 20.

No. 12 · Kentucky

Oct. 24: defeated Vanderbilt 34-17 at home.

Kentucky recovered from a 10-0 deficit and controlled the final three quarters. At 7-1 and 5-1 in the SEC, the Wildcats now have one of the stronger conference records in the poll.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise into the top 10.

No. 13 · Alabama

Oct. 24: defeated Texas A&M 31-20 at home.

Alabama trailed 20-17 after three quarters, then scored twice and held Texas A&M to 15 yards in the fourth. It was a needed response after consecutive losses, though the two-loss résumé still caps the climb.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise modestly, likely into the No. 10-12 range.

No. 14 · Houston

Oct. 24: lost at No. 10 Utah 21-13.

Houston led an unbeaten top-10 opponent by 10 in the second half before Utah’s comeback. The loss cost the Cougars a share of the Big 12 lead but came in one of the week’s most difficult road assignments.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Fall several places but remain ranked.

No. 15 · Iowa

Oct. 24: lost at Minnesota 13-10 on a 46-yard field goal as time expired.

Iowa managed 288 yards, committed four turnovers and lost to an unranked rival. The defense kept the game close, but the offensive inconsistency makes the ranking vulnerable.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Fall to the low 20s or just outside the poll.

No. 16 · USC

Oct. 24: lost at Wisconsin 24-7.

USC finished with minus-17 rushing yards, allowed five sacks and scored its fewest points since 2018. The margin and offensive breakdown make this one of the weekend’s most damaging results.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Drop out of the Top 25.

No. 17 · Wake Forest

Bye week; the official schedule shows no football game on Oct. 24.

Wake Forest had no opportunity to add to its résumé. Multiple losses above create room to move, but strong wins by teams behind the Demon Deacons create pressure in the other direction.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Hold near No. 17, with only minor movement justified.

No. 18 · LSU

Oct. 24: defeated Auburn 38-17 on the road.

LSU led 31-10 by halftime and finished with 38 points at Auburn. The road margin is a meaningful response after the Tigers’ uneven start and should carry more weight than a routine home win.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise into the mid-teens.

No. 19 · Texas

Oct. 24: defeated No. 7 Mississippi 34-27 at home.

Texas ended a two-game losing streak with its third win over a ranked opponent. The Longhorns led by 21, survived the comeback and intercepted the final pass in the end zone.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise into the No. 13-16 range, while the two losses prevent a return to the top 10.

No. 20 · Florida

Bye week; Florida’s official schedule has no Oct. 24 game.

Florida rested after its ranked road win at Texas. That result aged well when Texas beat Ole Miss, but the Gators added no new on-field evidence.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Hold or rise slightly as teams above fall.

No. 21 · Boise State

Oct. 24: defeated Washington State 31-10 on the road.

Boise State broke a 10-10 tie with three fourth-quarter touchdowns and became bowl eligible at 6-1. Six straight wins and a decisive road finish support another move up.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise a few places, likely into the high teens.

No. 22 · Missouri

Open date; Missouri’s official schedule announcement lists Oct. 24 as an open date.

Missouri had no game to change the record. The Tigers can benefit from losses above, but strong results by Boise State, SMU, Northwestern and Arizona limit any automatic rise.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Hold near No. 22.

No. 23 · SMU

Oct. 24: defeated California 59-20 at home.

SMU trailed 20-17 at halftime, then scored 42 unanswered points after the break. The Mustangs’ 6-1 record and overwhelming second half make a strong case for a substantial move.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise into the top 20.

No. 24 · Northwestern

Oct. 24: defeated Rutgers 42-14 at home.

Northwestern reached 6-1 and secured bowl eligibility with a 28-point conference win. The Wildcats took control early and avoided the volatility that hit much of the poll.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise into the No. 19-22 range.

No. 25 · Arizona

Oct. 24: defeated Iowa State 39-3 at home.

Arizona scored on its first two possessions, held Iowa State to 221 yards and allowed no touchdown. At 6-1 after a fifth straight win, the Wildcats made a much stronger case than their entry ranking suggested.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation outlook: Rise into the low 20s.