Missouri demands a new place in the Top 25; the leaders make voters choose

By Bob LePage · Oct 4, 2026

Sunday, October 4, 2026: Missouri’s rout of Florida changes the argument in the teens, while Alabama, Miami and Ohio State put pressure on the order at the top. Coverage: September 27 at 7 a.m. through October 4 at 7 a.m. Eastern.

Games covered: Sep 27, 2026–Oct 4, 2026. Baseline: Associated Press Top 25 college football poll, Sep 27, 2026. Ranking-change assessments and projections are by State & Nation.

The case for moving Missouri

Missouri should be the biggest beneficiary of this week’s voting. Beating Florida 45–17 is a persuasive argument that the Tigers belong well above the last line of the Top 25. It also challenges the premise behind the Gators’ place in the top ten. Florida’s win over Ole Miss remains part of its record, but a poll must respond when a team ranked No. 25 controls the meeting that decisively.

There is a limit to the reward. Missouri lost at Mississippi State the previous week, and the Bulldogs then lost heavily to Alabama. Those results cannot be collapsed into a neat chain that makes one team better than every other team. They tell us that the middle of this poll is unsettled. Missouri has earned a substantial move into the teens; Florida and Mississippi State need to move down. The precise order should acknowledge all three resumes.

At the top, the decision is more difficult because the challengers largely helped themselves. Miami won convincingly at Clemson. Ohio State beat a ranked Iowa team on the road. Alabama scored 56 at a previously unbeaten Mississippi State. Those victories deserve different weight from Indiana’s comfortable win at Rutgers or LSU’s rout of an FCS opponent. Texas, meanwhile, was idle, but its earlier wins over Ohio State and Tennessee remain substantial reasons to keep it first.

My strongest proposed adjustment among the leaders is to move Miami just ahead of Notre Dame and consider Alabama ahead of Indiana. Neither recommendation means Notre Dame or Indiana failed this weekend. It means voters have new evidence to compare. Winning preserves a claim; it does not freeze the order.

Poll baseline, coverage and opinion

Baseline: the Associated Press Top 25 college football poll issued September 27, 2026, for the 2026 NCAA Division I FBS season. The dated AP publication lists 25 teams with no tied ranked entrants. The numbers below are that baseline’s ranks, used consistently throughout this column, rather than a claim about any team’s rank in an earlier game. Official poll: https://apnews.com/live/top-25-college-football-poll-9-27-2026 .

This first edition covers completed games from Sunday, September 27, 2026, at 7 a.m. Eastern through Sunday, October 4, 2026, at 7 a.m. Eastern. The ranked teams played 16 verified games, all dated October 3; three matchups involved two ranked teams. Six ranked teams were idle. Every baseline team is included below. No ranked-team game in this window is being reported as final from an in-progress score, and no unresolved ranked-team result remains in this edition. September 26 games mentioned as season context fall outside the weekly results window; future games are also excluded from results.

The ranking outlooks are State & Nation projections and opinion for the next AP poll, not official rankings. The October 4 AP poll had not been released at the coverage cutoff. Suggested ranges allow for disagreement over opponent quality and the full season resume; they are not a second, unofficial numbered ballot.

The Top 25, team by team

No. 1 · Texas

Bye; no game in the September 27–October 4 coverage window.

Texas had no new result to add, but its earlier 24–23 win over Ohio State and 20–17 road win at Tennessee remain persuasive evidence. Ohio State’s strong showing at Iowa helps the value of that first win. An idle week does not erase the Longhorns’ work.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold at No. 1. Georgia can narrow the debate, but Texas still has enough substance in its existing resume to keep the top spot.

No. 2 · Georgia

October 3: defeated Vanderbilt 38–14 at home.

Georgia separated after a competitive first half and held Vanderbilt scoreless after halftime. The Bulldogs reached 5–0 without the kind of struggle that would reopen a serious question about their place near the top.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold at No. 2. This was a sound conference win; it does not, by itself, give Georgia a stronger case than Texas’s existing wins.

No. 3 · Notre Dame

October 3: won at North Carolina 37–26.

Notre Dame answered when North Carolina cut the margin to a point after halftime, then used its ground game to regain control. An eleven-point road win has value. It also leaves more room for comparison than Miami’s much more decisive performance at Clemson.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: A slight fall, potentially to No. 4. That would reflect Miami strengthening its case, rather than a sweeping penalty for Notre Dame winning away from home.

No. 4 · Miami

October 3: won at Clemson 41–13.

Miami’s first offensive play produced a touchdown, and the Hurricanes made the road setting increasingly irrelevant. At 5–0, with a 28-point conference road win added to the file, Miami supplied one of the weekend’s strongest arguments among the unbeaten leaders.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Rise, with No. 3 a reasonable destination. The margin and location give Miami a better new piece of evidence than Notre Dame’s closer win.

No. 5 · Ohio State

October 3: won at Iowa 31–14.

This was a substantial road win against the baseline poll’s No. 14 team. Ohio State outgained Iowa 484–238 and limited the Hawkeyes to 39 rushing yards. The earlier one-point loss at Texas remains part of the record, but this was a much stronger test than beating an unranked visitor.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold around No. 5, with a credible argument to climb. The undefeated teams immediately ahead also won, so a promotion is not automatic.

No. 6 · Indiana

October 3: won at Rutgers 47–15.

Indiana made its first road test comfortable and moved to 5–0. The 32-point margin is reassuring after the narrower Northwestern result. Rutgers, however, finished this game 1–4; opponent quality limits how far this result should carry the defending champion in this week’s comparison.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold or slip one spot. Alabama’s ranked road win could justify a swap, even though Indiana did what it needed to do.

No. 7 · Alabama

October 3: won at Mississippi State 56–23.

Alabama finally had a ranked opponent to measure itself against and won by 33 on the road. Four takeaways helped turn the game into a rout. At 5–0, the Tide have a stronger claim than a scoring total alone would suggest: this came against a team that entered unbeaten.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Rise toward No. 6, with No. 5 open to debate. Ohio State also earned a ranked road win, and the leaders above won, which makes a larger jump harder to justify.

No. 8 · Florida

October 3: lost at Missouri 45–17.

Florida’s victory over Ole Miss is still real, but so is this decisive reversal. The Gators finished 4–1 after a 28-point loss to the baseline No. 25 team. A top-ten position should require more consistency than a single impressive Saturday can provide.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Fall out of the top ten, likely well into the teens. Florida should remain in the discussion because of its Ole Miss win, but Missouri deserves to move ahead in the comparison.

No. 9 · Ole Miss

Bye; no game in the September 27–October 4 coverage window.

Ole Miss had no chance to repair the previous week’s Florida loss on the field. Florida’s subsequent defeat makes that loss look less defensible, while Alabama and other winners added evidence. The Rebels’ existing work should still prevent a reaction based solely on another team’s result.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold near the edge of the top ten or fall a few places. An idle team can be passed; that is different from charging it with a second loss.

No. 10 · BYU

October 3: won at TCU 17–10.

BYU survived a wet road game to reach 4–0. Its defense kept the score manageable while the offense produced only 216 yards. Winning in difficult conditions deserves credit, but the close finish offers less reason for a leap than the weekend’s emphatic ranked wins.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold around No. 10. A modest rise is possible if Ole Miss slides, but this should not become a reward simply for remaining unbeaten.

No. 11 · LSU

October 3: defeated McNeese 63–14 at home.

LSU delivered the expected separation against an FCS opponent. The margin supports confidence in execution, but it cannot carry the same weight as Alabama winning at Mississippi State or Ohio State winning at Iowa. The earlier Ole Miss loss still belongs in the evaluation.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold or rise slightly as Florida falls. Any move toward the top ten would mostly reflect space opening above LSU, rather than a new signature win.

No. 12 · Texas Tech

October 3: won at Colorado 29–7.

Texas Tech trailed 7–3 at halftime and then shut Colorado out over the final two quarters. Four interceptions helped the Red Raiders turn a difficult start into a clear road win and a 5–0 record. Their earlier narrow win over Houston remains useful context.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Rise modestly, toward the lower edge of the top ten. The second-half response helps, though the opponent and slow start argue against an outsized promotion.

No. 13 · Utah

Bye; no game in the September 27–October 4 coverage window.

Utah remains 4–0, with its earlier road win at Iowa State part of the case. No fresh performance arrived this week, so the Utes should be judged against new evidence from teams around them. They need neither an automatic idle-week penalty nor a bonus for avoiding a game.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold or rise slightly into the No. 11–13 area as Florida moves down. Texas Tech’s completed road win gives the Red Raiders the stronger new argument.

No. 14 · Iowa

October 3: lost to Ohio State 31–14 at home.

A first loss to a top-five opponent should not erase Iowa’s start, but the game was not a narrow escape by the visitor. Ohio State controlled the yardage comparison and Iowa’s rushing attack. Losing at home by 17 warrants a meaningful reassessment of the Hawkeyes’ ceiling.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Fall into the lower half of the poll. Retaining a ranking is reasonable; holding near No. 14 after this performance is harder to defend.

No. 15 · Oregon

Bye; no game in the September 27–October 4 coverage window.

Oregon’s earlier 41–27 win at USC and loss at Oklahoma State give the Ducks a mixed but meaningful resume. USC’s subsequent win adds some support to the former. With no new Oregon game, those direct results matter more than the attraction of a clean upward arrow.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold around No. 14–15, with a small rise possible as Iowa and Florida fall. Oklahoma State’s head-to-head win remains a reason to keep the gap between those teams modest.

No. 16 · Mississippi State

October 3: lost to Alabama 56–23 at home.

Mississippi State’s first defeat came against an unbeaten contender, but allowing 56 at home is too much to dismiss as opponent quality. The previous win over Missouri now looks better after the Tigers beat Florida. Those two results should both count, rather than letting either completely erase the other.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Fall toward the bottom of the Top 25. The Missouri win is a reason to consider retaining the Bulldogs; the Alabama margin makes a substantial drop necessary.

No. 17 · Tennessee

October 3: defeated Auburn 24–14 at home.

Tennessee recovered from a 7–3 halftime deficit, with DeSean Bishop rushing for 220 yards and three touchdowns. That response matters after the narrow loss to Texas. The Vols did not dominate from the start, but they finished a conference game with enough control to reinforce their place.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Rise a little or hold in the mid-teens. A ten-point home win is useful confirmation, not a reason to vault every idle or lower-margin winner.

No. 18 · USC

October 3: defeated Washington 25–21 at home.

USC erased a double-digit second-half deficit and won with the game’s final 15 points. The defensive response helped restore momentum after losing to Oregon. A four-point home escape also leaves the Trojans with questions that a final score alone should not conceal.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold in roughly the No. 17–19 range. Some movement may follow losses elsewhere, but the narrow home win is not strong evidence for a large rise.

No. 19 · Oklahoma State

Bye; no game in the September 27–October 4 coverage window.

Oklahoma State has won three straight since losing at Tulsa, including a home victory over Oregon and a road victory at West Virginia. Those earlier results make its entry into the rankings defensible. The bye supplies no fresh proof, so a move should follow comparisons rather than momentum alone.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold or rise slightly within the high teens. The Oregon win deserves weight, while the opening loss remains a limit on a much larger climb.

No. 20 · Houston

October 3: defeated UCF 27–17 at home.

Houston overcame a 10–0 halftime deficit and scored all 27 points after the break. The Cougars reached 4–1, with their only loss still the two-point result at Texas Tech. A good finish preserves a credible resume; the scoreless first half keeps this from being a statement win.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold around No. 20, with a small rise possible. The ranking should reflect the full 4–1 record and close loss, not just the comeback’s drama.

No. 21 · SMU

October 3: defeated Boston College 25–16 at home.

SMU worked past an early deficit and improved to 4–1. Boston College left 2–3, so this result mainly protects the Mustangs’ position. The earlier loss at Louisville still makes it difficult to argue that this weekend suddenly established a much higher ceiling.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold near No. 21. A small shift is possible through other teams’ losses, but a nine-point home win over a losing team offers little case for a big jump.

No. 22 · Boise State

October 3: defeated Utah State 37–18 at home.

Boise State led 21–0 and finished its first Pac-12 conference victory with a 19-point margin. The Broncos reached 4–1, and the earlier seven-point road loss at Oregon remains a respectable blemish. This was orderly progress against a team that finished 1–4.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold or rise slightly toward No. 20–22. The result supports continued inclusion, while the opponent’s record restrains the argument for more.

No. 23 · UCLA

Bye; no game in the September 27–October 4 coverage window.

UCLA stays 4–0 after its earlier 54–3 win at Maryland. That score remains impressive, but this week added nothing to the Bruins’ record. Their upcoming trip to Oregon offers a more revealing comparison than moving them several spots for being idle.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold or rise slightly near No. 21–23 as losing teams come down. A major promotion should wait for stronger evidence.

No. 24 · Kentucky

October 3: won at South Carolina 35–34 in overtime.

Kentucky came back from 17 points down and won on a two-point conversion in overtime. A conference road win counts even when the route is precarious. At 4–1, the Wildcats have earned a place in the debate, but allowing the game to become that difficult should temper the reward.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Hold or rise slightly near the bottom of the poll. The road setting helps; a one-point overtime win does not call for a sweeping leap.

No. 25 · Missouri

October 3: defeated Florida 45–17 at home.

Missouri supplied the clearest case for a large promotion. The Tigers followed their loss at Mississippi State with a 28-point win over the baseline No. 8 team, scoring 35 unanswered points along the way. Jamal Roberts’ 211 rushing yards helped make this an emphatic result rather than a fortunate finish.

State & Nation ranking outlook: State & Nation projection: Rise decisively into the teens. Missouri should move ahead of Florida in this comparison, while its Mississippi State loss is a reason to stop short of treating one afternoon as a complete top-ten resume.